There are strong sentimental and engineering reasons why General Motors would like to see the new Chevrolet Camaro released in Australia, but the business case is still marginal. According to Canadian Gene Stefanyshyn, who led the Camaro's Australian-based engineering team, the decision whether to proceed with a right-hand drive (RHD) version will be made very soon -- perhaps within the next two months.
Since the Camaro was engineered here by Holden and is based on the Zeta platform shared with the VE Commodore, it could be easily produced in RHD. An RHD Camaro might be of some benefit for Holden to monitor its acceptance and performance on home turf. Yet this alone is not critical enough to the project's success to justify selling it in Australia.
"Volumes? We could put something together that would be about 4000 pieces a year worldwide, to make that goal," said Stefanyshyn, responding to the question, what numbers are required to make RHD production of the Camaro viable.
That's 4000 units out of a forecast production of 100,000 units, but Stefanyshyn (pictured here with the black pre-production Camaro revealed yesterday), points out that GM arrived at figure of 4000 units prior to the jaw-dropping fuel price increases of the past 18 months. It will now be harder to sell 4000 RHD units of the Camaro around the world than two years ago.
Indeed, Stefanyshyn's comments go to the crux of the matter. The few remaining right-hand drive markets that could make up the necessary volume aren't on the surface screaming out for a big-engined high performance coupe right now. Stefanyshyn's team has looked at all the potential RHD markets and has concluded that unless sales for right-hook vehicles add up for the Australian market, there are not enough sales elsewhere to make up the difference.
The UK market is potentially the biggest after Australia. Vauxhall has demonstrated that there is a steady market for the Monaro and subsequent HSV four-door models in Britain. Even though the Camaro was never seriously marketed in the UK in the 1960s or 70s, British enthusiasts, like Australians, have great memories of the Camaro dominating their domestic touring car racing -- especially in the hands of Aussie Frank Gardner.
However, rising petrol prices and other disincentives for high carbon emitting vehicles will limit UK acceptance over the Camaro model life, which would start in RHD form in 2009 at the absolute earliest.
Following the UK, South Africa might account for reasonable numbers when Chevrolet was the 'home-grown' brand for so long and means almost as much to South Africans as Holden does to Australians. Because South Africans grew up with a similar US-powered musclecar heritage to our own, there should be enough well-heeled South Africans to account for steady Camaro sales, especially if it has been built on rugged Australian underpinnings. Conversely though, the recent collapse of the South African Rand -- which has hit sales of Ford's Territory hard -- will not help the Camaro.
Following that, there is Japan, but such is the high status in that country for LHD imports, the Camaro might even sell better in LHD, says Stefanyshyn. From there, the pickings become very slim indeed with countries like New Zealand, Thailand, Cyprus, Malta and West Indies accounting for incremental sales.
The Camaro team is looking at the Monaro's acceptance as a guide, but the Monaro arrived during a period when the outlook was far rosier for larger cars than it is today. The Monaro, which was built on the standard Commodore's wheelbase, was also a proper four-seater despite its two doors.
The new Camaro not only has a much sleeker roofline and shorter wheelbase than the current Commodore, the designers have also been forced to compromise cabin space to reproduce the long bonnet, short tail proportions of the original pony cars. A quick inspection of the prototype on display at Holden confirms that it will be a fairly cosy 2+2, exactly as the original, which was classified at the time as a "personal car."
Stefanyshyn's team are quite rightly asking Australians (including the automotive media) how many Camaros would sell in Australia and who would buy them. We are throwing the discussion open to readers, but first let's have a look at some of the parameters:
>>Monaro sales
Recent Monaro sales can provide a useful indicator in trends, if not actual numbers. After its late 2001 release, only 176 Monaros sold when there were supply issues on certain parts. During its first full year of sales in 2002, Holden sold 4274 Monaros which plummeted to just 2889 in 2003.
Sales for 2004 were heading towards a figure of 2000 or less, exactly as anticipated by the Holden business plan. The plan was to then let it quietly fade away well before VE, rest the Monaro badge and launch a new model several years into VE.
However, the Pontiac GTO export program came along unexpectedly and gave Holden the raw material for the comprehensive VZ update at virtually no cost in September 2004 -- and that helped push 2004 sales up to 2656. This revival continued into 2005, helped along by the special CV8-Z editions for a total of 2834.
After Holden's version of the Monaro was withdrawn from production six months ahead of the VE release, the 912 sales in 2006, 152 in 2007 and 6 in 2008 can largely be traced to HSV's ongoing activity.
Monaro fans will recall that a Monaro CV6 was originally offered but barely lasted 12 months before it was dropped. Powered by the raw supercharged version of the old V6 with a basic four-speed auto as the only transmission, it was a mercy killing.
>> Camaro close-up
In comparison, the Camaro presents a totally different scenario. Apart from featuring the 3.6-litre SI-DI (direct-injection petrol) V6 at entry level, driving through either a six-speed manual or six-speed automatic transmission with power and torque figures of 224kW and 370Nm respectively, it's also expected to be lighter than the Commodore at 1650-1670kg.
After driving these smooth and powerful V6 versions over a range of Australian conditions, Stefanyshyn is particularly enthusiastic about the sales potential of the V6 models in today's climate. He describes them as well-balanced, agile and relatively frugal, with V8 performance.
Two V8s are also expected with the 6.2-litre LS3 engine (315kW, 553Nm) manual version teamed to the new TR6060 six-speed transmission and the six-speed automatic model fitted with the L99 engine (299kW, 535Nm) with its Active Fuel Management (AFM) cyclinder deactivation system.
A convertible version could also be on offer.
In considering the local case for Camaro, Stefanyshyn presented a tantalising scenario to the Carsales Network. With a starting price of just over $50,000, how many Australians would want a Camaro and what would they expect for the money? Where would the buyers come from? In terms of age and gender, who would they be?
He also acknowledged there would be no point in bringing the Camaro to Australia unless there was enough in the kitty to provide regular updates -- a pre-requisite that the Monaro sales figures highlight so clearly. CN cheekily suggested there should be several limited editions acknowledging the livery and exploits of the original Camaros raced by Norm Beechey, Bob Jane and Kevin Bartlett.
If you were asked to present a case to Stefanyshyn and the GM beancounters for a RHD Camaro, what would you suggest?
We'll happily pass on your comments to Holden and Mr Stefanyshyn, just click here to leave your thoughts.